Why The Tories Won’t Win Here
I nearly choked on my porridge this morning as I was reading the latest post from LadywoodBlue, in which he claims the Conservatives could take Ladywood at the next local election.
You can play with statistics and pie charts all you want, but the facts from the European elections were: The Labour AND TORY vote went down. The Liberal Democrat vote went up.
For the Tories to be losing votes at a time when they should be roaring ahead on the back of national swing, shows Ladywood will not easily be turned blue.
Meanwhile, as the Tories are playing with pie charts, the Lib Dems (and even the Greens) are out regularly on the streets of Ladywood knocking on doors and actually engaging with the public.
To be talking about potentially winning a seat in public before you've put one idea forward to the people of the ward is sheer arrogance. And if there's one thing the folk of Ladywood despise, it's arrogant Tories!
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June 30th, 2009 - 20:21
That article made me giggle. I think the 2010 elections are going to be fun!
June 30th, 2009 - 22:29
It’s not a he. tut tut.
June 30th, 2009 - 23:18
Not wishing to spoil your porridge, but here’s a few salient points. Firstly, the pie chart is based on bare facts. Its not a Focus leaflet – there’s no ‘playing’ involved. Secondly, from an electoral point of view, the gap between first place and second place halved and we (the Tories) are in second place just 350 or so votes behind Labour. Who cares about the also rans? By your logic, UKIP are heading for victory! Thirdly, European elections showed a national showing for the Tories of 27% v 40%+ in the last set of locals which suggests that our result in Ladywood was above par. I happen to have detailed poll data by box. Of the 13, I have you beating us in a solitary box.
Keep telling yourself that we are doing nothing in Ladywood.
July 1st, 2009 - 04:35
Don’t worry Dominic, the porridge was crap anyway. We all know stats can be twisted this way or that. If your percentage goes up, but your actuals go down, that’s not always a good long-term thing.
By the way, interesting to note you have exactly the same IP address as “Lady” GaGa
July 1st, 2009 - 06:32
I knew you’d check that.
You said that the author of Ladywoodblue claims the Conservatives could take Ladywood at the next local election (although I missed that claim in the blogpost). I would be the first to admit it’s a long shot, but are you categorically saying that the Tories can’t win Ladywood ward?
July 1st, 2009 - 17:32
I make no predictions!